The heat and sunshine are rapidly drying out grain! We have a number of harvest safety resources in this week’s https://cropwatch.unl.edu. Here’s wishing everyone a safe harvest!

Fertilizer input costs is another topic farmers have been sharing with me about. Farmers will realize the cost of nitrogen inputs are higher than this time last year. An article in Farmdoc Daily from the University of Illinois shares, “Prices in the first week of August averaged $786/ton for anhydrous, $594/ton for urea, and $431/ton for liquid nitrogen.  These prices are 6%, 10%, and 20% higher than those reported for the first week of August in 2024….

Relative fertilizer prices provide another important perspective.  The ratio of anhydrous to monthly national cash prices for corn reported by the USDA is also included in Figure 1 (right axis). In calculating the ratio, the anhydrous price is converted to dollars per pound of nitrogen based on the average N content of 82%.  For example, the latest anhydrous price of $786 per ton is equivalent to $0.48 per pound of nitrogen ($786/(2000*0.82) = $0.48).

The relative price measure (anhydrous to corn price ratio) has followed a similar path to fertilizer price levels since the start of 2020.  Relative nitrogen prices peaked at the end of 2021 with a ratio of 0.17.  Since the fall of 2023 the ratio has varied around the current level of 0.11.  Also similar to absolute prices, the relative price of fertilizer in the past few years has been above longer run averages (average ratio of 0.09 from September 2008 through 2020).”

The authors suggest, “Forward pricing, volume discounts, and varying the timing of purchases and applications are strategies that can be used by farmers to control costs and the risks associated with fertilizer price risk. Farmers are advised to collect pricing information from multiple sources and consider their application rates given the ongoing cost-price squeeze.”

A number of farmers the past few weeks have shared frustration with the input cost prices compared to the crop prices in anticipation of next year’s crop season. Several farmers have asked about how to make their nitrogen more efficient. I don’t claim to have all the answers.

One farmer was looking at numbers and shared frustration over the current fertilizer pricing structure. He looked at where he could be if he became more efficient by 10% over 10 years. Seeing that savings, he asked a question, if farmers in general would become 10-25% more efficient over 10 years, resulting in reduced demand, what would that do to the fertilizer market? And, how could that help with groundwater quality for future generations?

With all these conversations I bring up Sentinel Ag. While no technology is without challenges, based on the research, the main way forward for increasing fertilizer efficiency is to apply less pre-plant nitrogen and use in-season sensing technologies to apply only what the plant needs. That is the point of my Nitrogen Challenge: For farmers with irrigated ground, apply 70-100 lbs N/ac pre-plant. Farmers with non-irrigated ground could apply 50-70 lb N/ac pre-plant. Use a sensing technology like Sentinel Ag to apply the remainder of the in-season nitrogen. There’s options to apply in-season nitrogen via fertigation and also side-dress. I was also asked, “What holds farmers back from using fertigation or from applying nitrogen in-season?” So, that’s a question I will ask you in this one-question poll, and  I will share the answers next week: https://app.sli.do/event/bWh8PhzaqsPWRvwweB5YTp.