JenREES 1/9/22

It was great to kick off winter programming last week and reconnect with people at the York Ag Expo! For those who attended pesticide training, please allow up to 3 weeks for the postcard with billing info. from NDA to be mailed to you. If you don’t receive a postcard in 3 weeks, please contact me or the local educator you received training from.

Two upcoming webinars of potential interest:

York County Corn Grower Banquet will be held Jan. 20th at Stone Creek in McCool Junction. Social will begin at 5:30 p.m. A supper of broasted chicken and roast beef will be served at 6:00 p.m. with program shortly after. The evening’s entertainment will be comedian Kris Covi. Kris is a Nebraska comedian who can be seen at events around the country and is known for his family friendly comedy. Tickets are $12/person and can be purchased from any York Co. Corn Grower director, the York Co. Extension Office, or at the door the evening of the 20th.

Nebraska Farm Income and Farm Policy Directions: Had several conversations the past week regarding farm income, bill, and thinking about the future. Dr. Brad Lubben recently wrote an article on this, so I’m sharing excerpts in the event you missed it. The full article can be viewed at: https://go.unl.edu/ixge.

“Farm Income: Using official state-level farm income data published by USDA’s Economic Research Service through 2020 and my projections for 2021-2024, net farm income in Nebraska is currently projected to be $8.1 billion in 2021, a sharp rise from the $5.3 billion estimate for 2020, which itself was up substantially from the $3.5 billion average over the 2015-2019 downturn. Stronger commodity prices since late 2020 coupled with reduced, but still substantial government payments led to the record income estimates.

“The record farm income levels may not last however, as forecasts through 2024 based on longer-term baseline projections from USDA and the Food and Agricultural Policy Center (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri pull Nebraska farm income back to the $5 billion to $6 billion range. An expected pullback in some commodity prices, a sharp rise in input costs, and a dramatic decline in government payments account for the drop in projected farm income.

“Safety Net: Looking closer at government payments provides insight on the role of the federal safety net as well as management decisions ahead for producers. Relying again on data from USDA’s Economic Research Service through 2020 and my projections for 2021-2024, the analysis shows government payments dropping from unprecedented levels in 2020 to minimal levels over the coming years.

“Government payments in Nebraska peaked at nearly $2.5 billion in 2020 as ad hoc COVID-19 relief rolled out primarily in the form of Paycheck Projection Program support and Coronavirus Food Assistance Program payments. That was more than double the payments of 2019, which itself was high due to the ad hoc relief in the form of Market Facilitation Program payments to combat losses related to on-going trade conflicts. Government payments dropped dramatically in 2021 as COVID-19 relief scaled back and they look to virtually disappear by 2022 except for the stable, predictable conservation payments of around $150 million per year.

“Amid the massive ad hoc payments over the past four years (trade assistance payments in 2018-2020 and COVID-19 relief payments in 2020-2021), the core part of the farm income safety net, namely commodity programs, have largely disappeared in relevance.

“Under the 2018 Farm Bill, producers had an opportunity to change their enrollment for 2019 and beyond and largely shifted toward PLC given the price projections at the time and the relative support of the ARC program versus the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program. ARC and PLC payments in 2020 for the 2019 crop were substantial at more than $240 million (almost all PLC) but have dropped to around $50 million for 2021 and are projected at minimal levels going forward given current price levels and projections.” The rest of the article can be viewed at: https://go.unl.edu/ixge.

Figure 1. Net Farm Income in Nebraska

Source: USDA-ERS and author calculations.

Figure 2. Government Payments in Nebraska

Source: USDA-ERS and author calculations.

About jenreesources

I'm the Crops and Water Extension Educator for York and Seward counties in Nebraska with a focus in irrigated crop production and plant pathology.

Posted on January 9, 2022, in JenREES Columns and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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